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C O N F I D E N T I A L LIMA 000158 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/11/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PINR PE
SUBJECT: LIMA MAYOR LUIS CASTANEDA ON OLLANTA HUMALA 
 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Alexander Margulies.  Reason: 1.4(b/ 
d). 
 
...
id: 49732
date: 1/13/2006 14:19
refid: 06LIMA158
origin: Embassy Lima
classification: CONFIDENTIAL
destination: 
header:
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DE RUEHPE #0158/01 0131419
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RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ JAN QUITO 9916
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RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 6437
RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL

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C O N F I D E N T I A L LIMA 000158 

SIPDIS 

SIPDIS 

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/11/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PINR PE
SUBJECT: LIMA MAYOR LUIS CASTANEDA ON OLLANTA HUMALA 


Classified By: Political Counselor Alexander Margulies.  Reason: 1.4(b/ 
d). 

¶1.  (C)  SUMMARY:  Lima Mayor Luis Castaneda, in a 1/10 
meeting with the Ambassador and Polcouns, characterized 
Ollanta Humala's appeal to Peru's marginalized voters as one 
of "sentiment," not reasoning.  He cautioned that frontal 
attacks on Humala will backfire and mused that the best way 
to undercut the latter would be by shining a light on him, 
his positions, and his congressional candidates.  Castaneda, 
who is Peru's most popular politician, said that he would 
personally get involved in the campaign "at an opportune 
moment," which would probably come sometime between the first 
and second rounds of presidential balloting.  His National 
Solidarity party is a member of Lourdes Flores' Unidad 
Nacional alliance, and will be running a slate of 
congressional candidates under its banner, most of whom have 
worked with Castaneda before.  He predicted that the 
presidential race will come down to Flores and Humala, with 
Flores coming out on top.  END SUMMARY. 

¶2.  (C)  Castaneda assessed Ollanta Humala's appeal as 
follows: 

--  The Peruvian electorate can be divided into two sectors: 
the conventional sector, which will vote for traditional 
politicians such as Lourdes Flores, Valentin Paniagua and 
Alan Garcia, and the non-conventional sector, which will vote 
for anti-system candidates such as Alberto Fujimori or Humala. 

--  The non-conventional sector has been growing because the 
traditional politicians and the three branches of government 
are increasingly discredited.  The people are fed up with the 
old figures, they see no light at the end of the tunnel, and 
the polls show that most would leave the country if they 
could. 

--  The non-conventional sector's vote is one of rejection, 
it is not a positive action.  Support for Ollanta Humala is 
based on this "sentiment" of rejection, not on any of 
Humala's particular qualities.  The non-conventional 
candidate could be Humala, or it could be any John Doe, just 
so long as his campaign is aimed at obtaining vengeance on 
the corrupt elite. 

--  The less Humala says the more he will benefit from this 
sentiment: "If I was his advisor I'd tell him to keep his 
mouth shut." 

--  The population also senses a lack of leadership, and 
Humala appeals to the desire for a strong figure in charge. 


¶3.  (C)  The traditional politicians, Castaneda acknowledged, 
are largely to blame for this situation, as they have battled 
over the spoils of power rather than dedicate themselves to 
improving the lot of Peru's poorest.  He contrasted this to 
his own actions as Mayor, in which he has sought to employ 
the Lima Municipality's meager resources in the most 
efficient manner possible to bring about positive tangible 
improvements in people's lives, pointing in particular to his 
program of building over 1000 staircases in the shantytowns 
clinging to the hillsides surrounding the capital (Note: 
Castaneda's approval rating currently is about 80%.  End 
Note).  Castaneda also faulted the media for helping to 
destroy people's faith in the country and demoralizing 
society as a whole, noting that it refuses to provide 
adequate coverage to positive developments while accentuating 
the negatives.  He dismissed most media organs and 
journalists as little more than blackmail artists, dredging 
up scandals in order to extort money from those involved, 
rather than to promote needed reforms. 

¶4.  (C)  The best way to counter Humala, Castaneda opined, 
would be by forcing him and his followers into the light of 
publicity.  The more people become aware of who Humala, his 
vice presidential and his congressional running mates really 
are, the Lima Mayor explained, the more it will weaken the 
power of the "sentiment" that has brought him up in the polls 
and, "the more the people will realize that he is not the 
dream they thought he was." Another useful tactic, Castaneda 
suggested, would be to create confusion regarding the four 
Humalas currently involved in politics:  Ollanta, his brother 
Ulises (running as a rival presidential hopeful on the Avanza 
Pais ticket), his imprisoned brother Antauro (charged with 
responsibility for the death of five people in the January 

2005 Andahuaylas uprising) and his father Isaac (most 
recently talking favorably about the possibility of war with 
Chile). 

¶5.  (C)  The worst way to counter Humala, Castaneda 
continued, would be to attack him frontally.  If the 
traditional politicians try this, he declared, it would just 
play into Humala's hands as his potential electorate is 
naturally inclined to believe the opposite of what the 
traditional pols say.  The media is equally discredited, and 
has far less influence than it is thought to have.  Castaneda 
pointed out that he was elected Mayor despite having the 
media against his candidacy.  "The way to communicate with 
the people," he emphasized, "is not through words," but 
through personal contact and deeds. 

¶6.  (C)  When asked by the Ambassador for his predictions on 
the outcome of the election, Castaneda replied that he 
thought it would come down to a run-off between Lourdes 
Flores (to whose Unidad Nacional alliance he belongs) and 
Humala, with Flores emerging victorious.  He dismissed the 
possibility that APRA's Alan Garcia would win through to the 
second round, calling him a "snake oil salesman with a tired 
message whose day has passed."  Castaneda cautioned, however, 
that he suspected that his opinion may have been influenced 
more by his heart than his head. 

¶7.  (C)  With respect to his own involvement in the electoral 
process, Castaneda said that he would intervene, "at the 
opportune moment."  He was not sure precisely when this 
moment would come, but stated that it would probably be 
sometime between the first and second round of presidential 
balloting.  A politician has to safeguard his influence and 
credibility, the Mayor explained, and he would be very 
careful in deciding when to play his political chits. 

¶8.  (C)  Castaneda added that his National Solidarity party 
has largely finalized its congressional candidates that will 
run under the Unidad Nacional alliance.  Most have worked 
with the Mayor before, either for the municipality or for the 
Social Security Administration, which Castaneda previously 
headed.  Almost all of these candidates have never served in 
Congress before, he noted, the exceptions being holdovers in 
Lambayeque and Piura (a reference to current Unidad Nacional 
legislators Rafael Aita and Fabiola Morales). 

¶9.  (C)  COMMENT:  Castaneda is by far and away Peru's most 
popular politician, an honor he has earned through hard work, 
apparently honest government, and an ability to communicate 
with the poorest classes, understanding their needs and 
responding effectively to them.  As he himself noted, "I am 
much more popular in the E sector (Peru's least well off) 
than Ollanta."  His National Solidarity party has built up a 
strong party organization in the shanty towns around Lima, 
which enables him to keep his finger on the socio-political 
pulse.  His views on the basis for Humala's popularity, and 
on the ways to undermine it, are worth paying attention to. 
END COMMENT. 
STRUBLE 

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