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RUEHQU RUEHRD RUEHRG RUEHRS RUEHTM RUEHVC
DE RUEHUB #0252 0741936
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R 151936Z MAR 07
FM USINT HAVANA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1450
INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
RUEHWH/WESTERN HEMISPHERIC AFFAIRS DIPL POSTS
RUEHSW/AMEMBASSY BERN 0061
RUEHROV/AMEMBASSY VATICAN 0049
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RUCOGCA/COMNAVBASE GUANTANAMO BAY CU
RUESDM/JTLO MIAMI FL
RUMIAAA/USCINCSO MIAMI FL

C O N F I D E N T I A L HAVANA 000252 

SIPDIS 

SIPDIS 

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/15/2017 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM CU
SUBJECT: XXXXXXXXXXXXNEED A MILLION CUBANS IN THE STREETS 


Classified By: COM Michael E. Parmly; Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 

¶1. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX told COM and Pol-Econ Counselor 
March 14 that she was withdrawing from her day-to-day running 
of the APCS for health reasons and also to focus on the 
bigger picture. XXXXXXXXXXXX objective for the next few months is to 
plan for how to mobilize a million Cubans to take to the 
streets to demand significant political and economic changes. 
XXXXXXXXXXXX did not provide any specific target date, although XXXXXXXXXXXX acknowledged Fidel Castro's funeral as one catalyst and the tenth anniversary of a seminal opposition document "The 
Nation Belongs to All" ("La Patria es de Todos") that
XXXXXXXXXXXX authored, landing them all in prison. 

¶2. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX said she was worn down from having to act as 
leader and also XXXXXXXXXXXX own secretariat for the APCS,
XXXXXXXXXXXX last major event being the congress of independent libraries, that concluded at the end of February with a ceremony at our PAO residence. The recent release from prison of APCS 
Vice-President Rene Gomez Manzano allowed XXXXXXXXXXXX more leeway; Gomez Manzano will now share the leadership with Felix Bonne Carcases, the APCS's other vice-president. MBR would still, 
inevitably, be reachable to the thousands of members of the 
opposition, particularly families of political prisoners, who 
turn to XXXXXXXXXXXX for help. However, XXXXXXXXXXXX would not continue the same pace of constituent services that she had delivered in the past. 

¶3. (C) The big picture, said XXXXXXXXXXXX, required time to reflect. 
XXXXXXXXXXXX admired Oswaldo Paya for his ability to think 
and write and strategize. "We have reached a new level of 
maturity and need to set aside rivalries," XXXXXXXXXXXX added.
XXXXXXXXXXXX commented that wherever XXXXXXXXXXXX is stopped by total strangers who say they recognize XXXXXXXXXXXX and respect what XXXXXXXXXXXX stands for. XXXXXXXXXXXX believes that XXXXXXXXXXXX has developed a network nationwide that, at the right moment, could very realistically put a million Cubans in the streets. The trick was to aim for the mobilization at the exact point when its 
impact would be the most transformational. 

¶4. (C) Comment: We agree with MBR's main point that the 
current repertoire of oppositionist activities has reached a 
certain limit that, while still worthy and necessary, does 
not add up to a sufficiently combustible mix to bring about 
regime change. In our view, only XXXXXXXXXXXX and Oswaldo Paya have the nationwide name recognition to mobilize anything close to 
a million Cubans. In this context it is encouraging to hear 
her speak favorably about Paya. 
PARMLY