VZCZCXRO0346
PP RUEHROV
DE RUEHEG #2158/01 3211403
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 171403Z NOV 09
FM AMEMBASSY CAIRO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4266
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE
RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RUEHKH/AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM 1385

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 002158 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR NEA/ELA, AF/SPG 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/05/2019 
TAGS: PREL SU EG
SUBJECT: SUDAN: SPLM SPOKESMAN ADVOCATES PRESSURE ON NCP 
 
Classified By: Minister Counselor for Economic and Political Affairs Donald A. Blome for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).
1.(C) Key Points: -- XXXXXXXXXXXX during a November 2 visit to Cairo, told us pressure needs to be exerted on the NCP to facilitate free and fair elections and CPA implementation. -- XXXXXXXXXXXX said the XXXXXXXXXXXX appreciates the support of the U.S. Government and people, without which "the XXXXXXXXXXXX would not have achieved anything." -- According to XXXXXXXXXXXX, XXXXXXXXXXXX's statement encouraging South Sudanese to vote for independence was "realistic and rational," but does not mean the XXXXXXXXXXXX has given up hope for unity. -- XXXXXXXXXXXX assessed that Egypt could play a larger role in resolving the Sudan's crises, but the GoE must "put aside its fear" and realize that failure to act will force it to respond to events on the ground that it does not control.

2.(C) Comment: XXXXXXXXXXXX trip to Cairo followed on the heels of the visit of XXXXXXXXXXXXon October 25-26. XXXXXXXXXXXX's visit was intended to increase communication and coordination between the SPLM offices in Juba and Cairo, especially relating to the electoral and referendum process. XXXXXXXXXXXX was extremely cynical about the possibility for any real change in Sudan absent outside pressure on the NCP government and believes that the January 2011 referendum will lead to southern secession. Following our meeting with XXXXXXXXXXXX, he held a group meeting with the top South Sudanese and Darfuri community leaders in Cairo. --------------------------------------------- --------------- Pressure Needed to Ensure Free Elections, CPA Implementation --------------------------------------------- ---------------

3.(C) XXXXXXXXXXXX told Poloff during his visit to Cairo on November 2 that pressure needs to be exerted on the NCP to facilitate free and fair elections and CPA implementation. He said the SPLM is ready to contest the April 2010 elections, but without pressure on the NCP it is unlikely that the elections will be "fair or free." He believes that fair and free elections would resolve the situation in Darfur and achieve peace and tranquility in the country because "Khalil Ibrahim and Abdel Wahid Al Nur would not fight against a democratically-elected government."

4.(C) XXXXXXXXXXXX stated that the NCP has purposely slowed implementation of the CPA. He said recent demands by Sudanese Vice President Ali Osman Taha to conclude wealth sharing discussions before beginning discussions on the referendum and political consultations slows the process further. Chol stated that if the process doesn't begin to move, the XXXXXXXXXXXX may be forced to do something "unplanned." --------------------------------------------- ------ Independence is Rational Unless Unity is Attractive --------------------------------------------- ------

5.(C) XXXXXXXXXXXX said the recent statement by SPLM Chairman and GoSS President Salva Kiir encouraging South Sudanese to vote for independence was "realistic and rational," but does not mean the SPLM has given up hope for unity. He stated that SPLM cannot accept that South Sudanese will remain "marginalized and second-class citizens." XXXXXXXXXXXX said unity can only occur if there is government acceptance of the "historical and contemporary diversity" in Sudan. He referenced the continuing debate over Sharia law in Sudan as a signal that Khartoum has not changed its approach. Chol said "countries concerned with unity should press the NCP to make unity attractive." In the absence of any change, he believes it may be best to "separate with dignity." --------------------------- Egypt Should Act, Not React ---------------------------

6.(C) XXXXXXXXXXXX said Egypt is a key actor in the region and should use its influence to sway the "dictators" in Khartoum. However, he said Egypt has not played a big role in resolving the crises in Sudan because "fear governs its policy" and the GoE sees the status quo as the way to "maintain access to Nile waters." XXXXXXXXXXXX questioned the Egyptian calculation saying that Cairo needs to realize "if CAIRO 00002158 002 OF 002 it fails to act in Sudan it will be left to react to the consequences of events that occur." Scobey